treams of buoyant party workers and supporters moving in and out of the BJP’s Assam state office in Guwahati made it difficult to enter the party office for any visitor. At around 10 am on Thursday, the local television channels darting figures of vote counting showed the party leading in more than 50 seats.
By 11 am, party workers started dancing to the tunes of popular Assamese songs played through a high intensity music system in the office premises. By then a large television screen was set up on a stage decked in saffron in the lawns of the BJP, showing the party's climbing vote share — leading in more than 60 seats out of the 126 assembly constituencies; the state still had several rounds of counting left.
Was not it too early for BJP, a party that never was even a part of a government in Assam to celebrate? The final result could be very different from what the early trends predict. “Certainly not,” said Utpal Das a party worker, rejoicing along with his co-workers in the office premises. “We are just early to catch the signal of victory,” he added smilingly — “see, there is a tried and tested formula to predict election result in Assam,” he said and further illustrated, “the formula says that if a political party manages to win over the Guwahati East constituency in the city, then it is certain that the party will form government in Assam eventually . It is a strange historical co-incidence in the state’s electoral politics, that has been showing itself up in every assembly election in Assam,”said Das.
Representational image. AFP
Results of assembly elections held in the earlier years show that this strange historical co-incidence has been continuing to occur since the election held in 1967.
“In that year Mahendra Mohan Choudhury of Indian National Congress won Guwahati East seat and the party formed government. This trend continued with each government formed in Assam after that. Even in 2011 assembly election, Congress candidate Robin Bordoloi won the seat and Tarun Gogoi of Congress remained in the position of the Chief Minister for the third consecutive term,” said Santanu Sharma, another party worker.
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